Chairman Lindsey Graham | Official U.S. Senate headshot
Chairman Lindsey Graham | Official U.S. Senate headshot
Bipartisan policymakers and budget analysts have expressed concerns over a Republican strategy that could lead to increased deficits. This approach, known as the "current policy baseline," is being criticized for potentially masking the costs of extending tax cuts for the wealthy.
Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Jeff Merkley stated, "What Republicans are attempting to do is upend decades of precedent and trample on the laws that govern how Congress budgets. Congressional Republicans need to realize that 'magic math' does not exist and tax cuts cost money, even if Republicans want to pretend that they don’t."
Senator Mike Crapo and Representative Jason Smith are considering using this baseline in place of the Congressional Budget Office's standard current law baseline. This would reportedly make their proposals appear less costly and help avoid political backlash.
Critics from both parties argue this tactic will inflate national debt regardless of measurement methods. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren commented on what she termed "billionaire math," likening it to assuming no additional cost for renewing a lease without payment.
U.S. Representative David Schweikert remarked, “Anyone that says current policy baseline is engaging in intellectual and economic fraud.” Similarly, U.S. Representative Chip Roy dismissed it as "fairy dust."
Andrew Lautz from the Bipartisan Policy Center noted, “One baseline can show a bill to cost $4.5 trillion on paper and another $0...extending expiring TCJA provisions without offsets will contribute $4.5 trillion to deficits.”
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warned that adopting this approach could justify significant new borrowing. Marc Goldwein from CRFB described it as potentially the most economically costly gimmick in American history.
Experts such as Bobby Kogan and Brendan Duke highlighted concerns about special treatment in budget enforcement, while Jessica Riedl emphasized that economic laws cannot be bypassed through reconciliation.
Romina Boccia pointed out that using an accounting gimmick pretends tax cuts won’t increase the deficit, while George Callas criticized mixed use of baselines for financial benefit.
Andrew Moylan concluded by stating that such practices are akin to ignoring certain calories on a bathroom scale.